The independent poll just released by Rasmussen Reports (500 surveryed, +/-4.5%) shows Thune ahead 50%-47% over Daschle. Daschle's opponent for Congress in 1982, Clint Roberts, isn't surprised. On Saturday, the Argus Leader mentioned Roberts in a story, but didn't include much of what has been on his mind lately. I called Roberts the day the Argus story ran and got the real scoop. Some of Roberts' thoughts on the race are below (more later). Note how Roberts also emphasizes how Daschle ran as a conservative in 1982, similar to his first run for Congress in 1978 and his first run for the Senate in 1986.
In 1982, Roberts explained in our telephone interview, Daschle "ran as a conservative," in contrast to George McGovern, who "didn't protistute himself." Roberts: "While I never supported McGovern and his philosophy, at least when he took a stand he stood by it, such as his views on the Vietnam war. I always respected McGovern." Roberts also noted how the internet is a "great thing" which has allowed people to get a lot more information about politics than they had in 1982. The Argus Leader "has been a pretty strong supporter of Daschle over the years" and Kranz "is about as biased as they come," although he's a nice guy personally.
Roberts also noted that in 2004 Daschle is again running as a conservative or moderate as he did in 1982: "He's doing the same thing again. Nothing changes. He plays it both ways. He talks out of both sides of his mouth. It's worked a long time. People let him get by with it. He's a liberal." Daschle has also learned from McGovern's mistakes: "Daschle is a smart politician. He does what's necessary to win. He learned a lot from McGovern's loss [in 1980]." Daschle uses McGovern's "soft voice" and tries to excel at constituency service. While Roberts would probably have bet on Daschle 6 months ago, now he would now bet on Thune winning, although it will be "a squeaker." "A big win for Bush in South Dakota will be very difficult for Daschle." Roberts says that Daschle has also had to take some leadership stands that are "against the interests of South Dakota," which may hurt his political standing: "He's walking a tightrope." Some voters, he thinks, will also reject an all-Democrat delegation and will vote for Herseth instead of Daschle. Issues like gay marriage will also hurt Daschle. The issue is a "no-brainer in South Dakota."
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