In February, an Argus Leader/KELO-TV poll showed Daschle defeating Thune 50%-43%. A new poll just taken by the Rapid City Journal/KOTA/KSFY shows that Daschle is backsliding to 48%-43%. Note, Thune hasn't run one ad and just entered the race a few months ago! Daschle, on the other hand, has been running TV ads since June of 2003--more than $6 million worth! To spend $6 million in a small media market and slip in the polls indicates that Daschle has a lot of problems. No wonder Daschle freaked out over Tim Giago entering the race as a third party candidate.
UPDATE: A reader also notes this recent 48%-45% poll. Also, Professor Volokh (no Daschle fan) wonders about one of the eternal pitfalls in economics and social science in general, statistical significance, and whether there's enough evidence to claim slippage. Fair enough. But there's clear agreement that Daschle's "spending spree" on ads (Roll Call's term) has yielded zippo. cka3n thinks that Professor Volokh is being a bit pessimistic and says "this shift may well be newsworthy."
UPDATE II: More on statistical significance from Glen Whitman at Agoraphilia, who thinks that the changing poll numbers may be, well, more significant, than Professor Volokh does.
UPDATE III: More from SDP.
Has ALL $ 6 Million of Daschle's money gone to TV advertising? Or has some gone into party organization? I read recently where the SD GOP has 8,000 volunteers for a Get-Out-The-Vote effort. Is that true? And how does it compare to the Democrats?
Posted by: Colorado Conservative | April 02, 2004 at 07:31 AM