Daschle v. Thune

Senate Race and House Special Election in June

Note the following snippet from today's Roll Call about the interaction between the Senate campaigns and the June House contest to fill former Congressman Janklow's seat:

[Daschle campaign manager Steve] Hildebrand said that given South Dakota voters’ willingness to give a Republican president 60 percent of the vote while sending two Democratic Senators to Washington, the winner of the House race is immaterial.

“The Senate race will clearly come down not to who is sitting in the Congressional seat but what’s best for South Dakota,” he said.

One Democratic operative took the opposite stance, however.

“The [House] race is extremely important to Tom Daschle,” said the operative. “People will be looking at it as a measure of how he might do in the fall.”

This highlights a no-win scenario for the Democrats (and some wishful Hildebrand thinking). If Herseth loses, it looks like the Democratic GOTV operation is not as impressive as some think and it makes Daschle look weaker. If Herseth wins, John Thune can talk about the dangers of an entirely Democratic delegation representing the state in a Washington completely controlled by Republicans (who aren't big Daschle fans). Hildebrand, who's no fan of Herseth because of the gay marriage flap, is probably rooting for Deidrich.

Daschle Freaks Out

Word on the street is that Senator Daschle called Tim Giago yesterday in a desperate attempt to get Giago to stop his third party bid for the Senate. Daschle knows this could be the end of his career. Maybe some "Sopranos-style" tactics are around the corner. Developing...

On a related note, Daschle's call to Giago exposes the absurdity of his campaign's spin in today's edition of Roll Call:

“When Mr. Giago announced he was going to run in the primary, Senator Daschle said he thought it was a good thing for the state because it would highlight issues important to Native Americans,” [Daschle deputy campaign manager Dan] Pfeiffer said. “He still believes that.”

Note to Pfeiffer: spin is supposed to plausible.

Daschle Foundering: Even the True Believers Have Doubts

The damage from the Giago candidacy is now clear. Even Joshua Micah Marshall, the blogosphere's most religious Democratic booster, is having doubts about Daschle's re-election chances. Marshall wonders what's so different from the Thune-Johnson race of 2002. Plenty. Johnson ran as a conservative Democrat seeking drought relief for South Dakota ranchers. Daschle, as the face of the national Democratic Party, can't pull that off. He has already infuriated gun owners (see this too). The pro-lifers opposed his attempt to undermine the Laci Peterson bill. He completely fumbled the ethanol bill, a measure that is sacred in South Dakota, raising questions about Daschle's dwindling clout (Daschle was signing copies of his book, which tanked, causing the DNC to do a bulk buy). The Chamber of Commerce is against him. There's also the problem of the "family business", his new mansion in DC, and relations with the Bishop. These accumulated problems could be why he won't take questions back in South Dakota. Then there's this problem. And half of South Dakotans think Daschle puts the national Democratic party above their interests.

Nationally, Daschle's base is revolting against him, even calling for his resignation. Even former Daschle staffers think Daschle should step down as leader because he's ineffective when trying to run for re-election in SD too. When Daschle was busted for saying how great the Iraq war was going when he was in SD in February, he further alienated his national base. The Daschle campaign's assurances to SD voters that he supported the President 75% of the time made the national base even more angry. Even the Democrats in SD are divided--Daschle's campaign manager recently demanded the return of his donation to the Herseth campaign because of her gay marriage position.

In addition to Daschle having to contend with serious Indian opponents like Tim Giago, Thune has picked up significant Indian support. Daschle's attempts to build support have also fallen flat. Daschle has spent $6 million on ads--what Roll Call deemed a "spending spree"--and hasn't moved the polls a lick. He's slipped, actually, to 48%-45%, and Thune hasn't run an ad yet! Here's more on the polling.

The fundamental problem is that Daschle can't maintain the "house of cards" he's built--he can't pretend to be a conservative in South Dakota and lead the liberal vanguard in Washington. People in South Dakota, despite Daschle's $6 million media barrage, know such posturing is dishonest. Daschle may have thought he could pull it off. He may have become blinded by his own cynicism. The obvious comparison is to George McGovern, who ran as a liberal and, when the voters turned against liberalism, was defeated, while proudly adhering to his beliefs, instead of embracing spin, cynicism, and obfuscation.

UPDATE: Powerline weighs in. So does Hugh Hewitt (Hugh notes: "There's even a blog devoted exclusively to this race, which is a pretty interesting development. Bookmark Daschle v. Thune for updates on the marquee race of 2004." -- thanks Hugh!). See Joe's Blog for Daschle as chicken. Econpundit also takes notice, as does Betsy's Page and Slublog.

Memory Lane

Let's get this straight. Daschle has been criticized for being all over the map on the Iraq war. So what does he do? According to WaPo (great catch SDP), he takes former Senator Eugene McCarthy (yes, the 1960s anti-war McCarthy) to the Senate floor, talks about being anti-war, and then allows McCarthy to read poems! Daschle was a fan of McCarthy back in 1968 too (great find by SDP).

Daschle Hypocrisy on the Crushing of Dissent

See this floor statement from Senator Daschle today on the crushing of dissent by the Bush administration:

I am compelled to rise again today, because the people around the President are systematically abusing the powers and prerogatives of government. ... The retaliation from those around the President has been fierce. ... There are some things that simply ought not be done – even in politics. ... The response from those around the President was retribution and character assassination -- a 21st Century twist to the strategy of "shooting the messenger." If it takes intimidation to keep inconvenient facts from the American people, the people around the President don't hesitate.

Again, when will Daschle show the same concern about the "Sopranos-style tactics" of his agents in South Dakota? See here and here for examples of government officials being threatened by Daschle and vocal South Dakota dissenters being crushed.

Frist on Daschle: "Clear-cut obstruction"

Senator Daschle threw down the gauntlet today--no more of the President's judges will be approved. See the Reuters story here. No wonder the Wall Street Journal says its hurting Daschle in South Dakota.

Hotline: Daschle Can't Buy a Break

This is currently the top story in The Hotline:

One of the tightest Senate races in the nation appears to be getting even tighter. Lakota Journal publisher Tim Giago plans to drop his primary challenge to Sen. Min. Leader Tom Daschle for an independent bid for SD SEN this fall. Any indie bid is a potential difference-maker in this race. In '02, the Libertarian dropped out of the race before the election but still garnered over 3,000 votes in a race decided by just 528. But Giago, who plans to focus on Native American issues, poses an even greater threat to Daschle among a reliably Dem voting bloc.

Since bypassing the presidential race in favor of a re-election bid, Dashle can't seem to buy a break. His heavy TV adverstising last year was unable to keep John Thune out of the race. GOP money is flowing into the state on behalf of Thune, and he nabbed one of the premier GOP campaign managers in the nation. And with John Kerry rushing to bolster his own coffers, SEN candidates are left largely on their own. Then again, isn't that just how Daschle likes it?

UPI has more.

Wall Street Journal: Daschle's New Wave of Obstruction Hurting Him in SD

From today's Opinionjournal.com:

Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle has declared that henceforth all of President Bush's executive and judicial nominations will be held hostage unless the White House meets his demands. First on his list is a Bush pledge that the White House won't make any more recess appointments. In addition, Mr. Daschle is demanding that the president approve a list of pending Democratic nominees to seats on federal agencies where Democrats are entitled to minority representation.

"They have broken the process, and we want to fix it," he said in declaring that Democrats will now filibuster all nominees regardless of whether they are controversial until the White House bows to Mr. Daschle's demands.

Mr. Daschle has the troops to make his threats stick, but the tactic does carry political risk for him. He's running for re-election this year in South Dakota, a strong Bush state, and the $5 million he's already spent on TV ads since last July have failed to raise his support numbers above 50%. Should Mr. Daschle further cement his reputation as an obstructionist, some South Dakotans may start to wonder if he will be effective in getting things done for the state. Rep. John Thune, Mr. Daschle's GOP opponent, is already pounding home the Minority Leader's failure to pass an energy bill that would have benefited the state last year.

Third Party Challenge to Daschle from Giago

Ryne McClaren takes note of this news. MWQ has additional thoughts:

Native Americans have often been a bulwark of South Dakota Democratic support - a handful of their votes cost Mr. Thune, Senator Daschle's current challenger, a Senate seat in 2002. But things have changed, and some Lakota are now coming for South Dakota's cloutless, straddling, disingenuous senior Senator with things in mind other than support.

UPDATE: Brain Shavings has more on the Democratic schadenfreude.

UPDATE II: More comments from Powerline, Lexiblog (she'd "love to see Tom Daschle out of a job"), The Hedgehog Report, Fritz Feds, and No Watermelons Allowed. Most importantly, SDP is back.

Daschle Manager Demands Refund from Herseth over Gay Marriage Rift

For more on SD Dem disunity, see this article entitled "Daschle, Herseth Split on Gay Marriage Amendment":

A rift has developed between the campaigns of Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) and Stephanie Herseth, the Democratic candidate for South Dakota's lone House seat over the issue of gay marriage.

A month ago, the Associated Press quoted Herseth as saying, "I agree with the president on this issue. Marriage should be between a man and a woman."

Her statement produced a strongly negative reaction from some Democrats, especially from inside the Daschle campaign. The Rapid City Journal reported that Steve Hildebrand, campaign manager for the Senate minority leader asked for a refund of his contribution to the Herseth campaign. No reason was given for the unusual request and requests for comment by Talon News were not returned.