Daschle v. Thune

Afghan Elections

Whatever happens in November, President Bush can be proud of making elections possible in Afghanistan. The election was today--these chaps are standing in line to vote.

Rasmussen

Rasmussen Reports is now showing a 50%-46% Bush advantage in their tracking of the Presidential race. They are also offering an assessment of the Senate race:

This is the heavyweight match of the year. South Dakota is a heavily Republican state, but Daschle has a long track record of electoral success and the benefits of incumbency.

Thune lost a very close election, just a few hundred votes statewide, two years ago to Senator Tim Johnson.

Both political parties have a plausible story line as to why they should win this Senate election in 2004. Democrats want to believe that Daschle is a stronger candidate than Johnson was and that should make a difference.

Republicans want to believe that Johnson won two years ago partly because voters wanted to keep their state's Senator as the Majority Leader in Washington. Now that Republicans have control of the Senate, Daschle's clout is not what it was in 2002.

We currently show challenger John Thune up by four points over Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. But, it is truly too close to call.

Media

Kelley McBride in Poynter Ethics Journal: "It's been a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad year for journalism."

Daschle and the Presidency III

In my article for NRO last week about Daschle's political biography I made a big mistake, an error of omission. I neglected Daschle's planning for a Presidential run in 2004. It should have been included because it explains a great deal. For example, you might ask yourself: 'why would a pol from one the most pro-life states in the union send a fundraising letter for NARAL trumpeting his 'pro-choice' views and bashing the 'anti-choice forces?'' Because he was running for President and needed NARAL and other women's groups on his side during the primary season. His Presidential planning also explains his book release (I reviewed it here). One imagines that Daschle would have camped in Iowa in 2003 and relied on the skills of campaign manager Steve Hildebrand, who thumped Bradley in the Iowa caucuses for Gore in 2000. Daschle would need an Iowa victory first and would use it to nail down New Hampshire. If he didn't win Iowa, Daschle would probably have been in trouble. If Daschle was in the race when Dean began to implode would voters have turned to Daschle like they did to Kerry? Perhaps. It seems to me that if Daschle wanted to run for President he should have run in 2004. Hillary is planning for 2008 already if Bush wins. But much more importantly, going through this tough re-election contest in South Dakota virtually guarantees that Daschle can't win Democratic primaries. Remember that he's now running ads of himself hugging President Bush and refusing to say he's "pro-choice." That's a recipe for getting 1% in the Iowa caucuses.

Daschle and the Presidency II

Here are a few excerpts from a Mike Madden story about Daschle's would-be Presidential run which appeared in the Argus Leader on December 17, 2002:

But by suddenly leaving the field wide open, Gore's decision not to run could make it easier for the senator from South Dakota to win if he does launch a bid for the White House, party strategists and analysts said Monday.

...

Some strategists say the lack of a clear favorite for the 2004 nomination could play to Daschle's strengths if he does decide to run. Had Gore been running, the other candidates would have been fighting for second place, but now any one of them could maneuver themselves to the front, strategists and analysts said.

That could help Daschle, whose campaign style - honed over years of working one-on-one with voters in South Dakota - might fit well into the retail politics needed to do well in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, analysts said.

At the same time, the national fund-raising network Daschle built as Senate Democratic leader gives him the ability to tap tremendous resources for a presidential campaign. A talented cadre of former Daschle aides could be called in to work on his White House run, especially now that Gore won't be trying to hire them.

...

On Friday, Daschle spoke to a local AFL-CIO dinner in northeastern Iowa, where he attacked the Bush administration's economic policies as tilted toward the rich. He was accompanied on that trip by strategist Steve Hildebrand, Gore's 2000 Iowa campaign manager, who ran Johnson's Senate campaign in South Dakota this year.

Others have explained to me in much more detail about Daschle's plans for running, but I suppose some of that material couldn't be used in the story. But it's interesting how Daschle's plans were in place and then all-of-a-sudden he pulled the plug. More soon.

Daschle and the Presidency

The January 12, 2003 Argus Leader reported as follows:

Linda Daschle was preparing to give up her job as a Washington lobbyist so her husband, Sen. Tom Daschle, could seek the Democratic nomination for president.

Several stories written in the national media after Tom Daschle's decision not to seek the nomination have suggested his wife and her job were the reasons for abandoning a presidential campaign.

"Several stories," eh? Too bad what was in them wasn't reported in South Dakota. I've always wondered about the origins of those stories. Rivals like Kerry and Dean etc? Did Chris Lehane put them together? One guesses that the stories were originally written as 'get the full story on Daschle's wife now that he's a Presidential candidate' but turned into 'why Daschle didn't run' stories after he dropped out. Anyway, it's interesting that their existence and their impending publication bluffed Daschle out of the Presidential race.

86%

86% of people eligible to vote are now registered in SD. Here's the breakdown: Republican, 232,235; Democrat, 186,207; independent, 63,972. From an AP story:

Already 486,231 people, or 85.5 percent of eligible voters in the state, are registered, [the SOS] said. In 1980, registration topped out at a record 92.3 percent.

Orwell and Argus

Jay Rosen is a journalism professor at NYU and is quite interested in a recent column by Chris Sattullo of the Philadelphia Inquirer which discusses the rise of blogs. Sattullo offers a warning to those cheering the collapse of the Old Media:

What matters is that journalism survive, that the craft of speaking truth to power with factual care not be snuffed out. Because power prefers lies. Without journalism, lies flourish and liars rule.

...

I know, I know: What an old-media blowhard! But young bloggers, as you shove my type aside and stride to the glorious future, take care that the calendar doesn't one day turn to 1984. Be wary of the Orwellians.

The problem, of course, is that newspapers like the Argus Leader have become enablers of Orwellianism. While a sharp journalist took on one aspect of Senator Daschle's duplicity last week, the Argus stood by, once again refusing to report a matter that hurts Daschle. The Argus Leader's complete abdication of its responsibility to scrutinize Daschle is one of biggest stories of this campaign. Imagine how much trouble Daschle would be in if his enablers weren't in charge at the Argus. Imagine if his statements were actually analyzed and compared to what he previously said instead of being repeated as Gospel.

NARAL

CLARIFICATION: the text is a summary of the Roll Call article and is not verbatim.

A reader just sent this from Prolife Infonet:

Subject: NARAL Plans Extensive 2004 Election Effort Source: Roll Call, May 8, 2003

Washington, DC -- Seeking to increase its elections efforts in the 2004 election cycle and to stay a key player in the Democratic party's presidential nomination process, NARAL Pro-Choice America has hired veteran Democratic operative Michael Meehan to oversee its vastly expanded soft-money fundraising
operation.

Meehan -- a top political adviser to pro-abortion Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) --will serve as vice president for politics, campaigns and strategy, essentially overseeing all of the organization's political operations. Both the field and political directors at NARAL Pro-Choice America will report directly to him.

In addition to his advisory duties for Daschle, Meehan is coming off a stint as the message and polling director at the Democratic National Committee during the 2002 cycle.

Kate Michelman, the president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, said Meehan's hiring is "demonstrative of how important our political work is and how important the 2004 elections are."

Grassley

From today's Des Moines Register:

[Iowa US Senator Chuck] Grassley called the race the second-most important in the country, right behind the battle for the White House. ... Grassley, however, said Daschle's leadership position in the Senate has become a "curse instead of a blessing." "Daschle puts politics and party ambitions in first place. And by doing that, he is sacrificing the interests of farmers and rural America," Grassley said.