Analysis

If one uses the rough figures from 2002, think of this. Johnson had a net gain of 5,300 votes from the big reservation counties of Dewey, Shannon, and Todd. Thune had a net gain of 14,100 votes from the Black Hills counties of Pennington, Custer, Lawrence, and Butte. Since Thune has a lead going into the counting of these counties' votes, it's hard to see, at this point, how the math could work for Daschle.